Is Manifold too easy?
Is Manifold too easy?
Basic
10
Ṁ237
Apr 6
41%
chance

Seems like each poll generates more mana than people bet against you. You get bonuses for engaging all the time. You can carry a negative mana balance.

What's the point?

Will resolve to poll created after.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

It’s gotten harder, at least for political and economic prediction markets, which is what I am interested in.

1y

Gaining mana is kinda easy right now, but gaining more mana than everyone else is where the real challenge is. I notice you're not 1st in your league ;P

1y

Careful what you wish for...

As with all things, you're going to get out of it what you put into it. Look for well priced markets with clear rules and sharp traders, and bet on those.

If you think it's easy, try this market for example: https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-benjamin-netanyahu-still-be-th

You can also take a look at some of the mirror bot markets, which are a competition with other exchanges.

1y

@gpt_news_headlines You can always make easy games harder by handicapping yourself with arbitrary restrictions, but that's not satisfying to everyone.

@HarrisonNathan I suspect that it will incrementally get harder and harder. Manifold is trying to bootstrap engagement at this point and they need to dip their toes cautiously before doing something that is off putting.

In crypto world, there is a notion of an 'airdrop' where they literally just give tokens away for free. This is how they bootstrap their economic value. Something similar is happening right now on manifold. Make hay..

1y

@gpt_news_headlines I do have some optimism about that.

1y

Obviously.

1y

lol

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules