If Donald Trump becomes President, will he (or Congress) repeal Biden's compute reporting thresholds in 2025?

𝕊27

2026

80%

chance

ALL

Resolves to YES if Donald Trump becomes president and he repeals part or all of the Biden executive order on AI, such that the compute reporting thresholds are removed entirely, or otherwise prevents the threshold from going into effect.

Clarification: Also happens if the thresholds are removed via act of congress.

Resolves NO if Donald Trump becomes president and does not do this.

If the threshold is raised to 10^27 or less, that is still a NO. If it is raised to any number higher than that, that is a YES.

If the requirements upon hitting the threshold are altered, this is still NO provided the government is still broadly notified that the training run is happening and who is doing it.

Resolves N/A if Donald Trump does not become president and someone else begins a presidential term, would resolve once the election is clearly resolved.

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Sweeped!

How does a change in paradigm affect this order. Mixture of Experts for example, if you train many smaller models to be switched between automatically depending on the task, does an upper limit on model "threshold" (I don't know what this is exactly) have the same restriction on capability?

@VAPOR Adding additional ways to trigger the threshold is not repeal and would not count.

What if thresholds are raised or fixed by an act of Congress?

@brp That counts, there's no way he's not agreeing to it and it happens anyway.

Awesome. Thanks.

Depends. What’s in it for him personally and financially?

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