Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
Plus
37
Ṁ39022026
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if Google enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Google announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Google releases Gemini 2 or another similarly major frontier model release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
(If Google has made this commitment already and I missed it, bet it to 99%, post your link and claim your prize now and I thank you for the cheap info.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
27% chance
Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
38% chance
Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
65% chance
Will Meta join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
38% chance
Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?
Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025?
22% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025?
74% chance
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)
53% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025?
74% chance
Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)
8% chance