Gpt-5 >=91% on MMLU? | Manifold

Gpt-5 >=91% on MMLU?

Plus

41

Ṁ2615

Dec 31

88%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#GPT-5 Speculation

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

This tells us that MMLU is too easy. Someone make a Ph.D. version of it

@Sss19971997 it already exists: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022

predictedYES

Market's closing in a month with no sign of Gpt-5. @firstuserhere can you extend?

bunch of mmlu questions

gemini gets 90% on MMLU, so...

@TheBayesian wait what? share the link? i've not yet looked at it

GPT-4 can probably beat 91% with proper prompt engineering.

I have heard someone already did it using a combination of GPT-4 and some other model

Related questions

Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard

Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025?

GPT-5: 100+ on AMC

GPT-5: 120+ on AMC

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

Will GPT-5 ace exams?

Will GPT-5.2 reach 1500 on LMArena (no style-control)

GPT-5: >178 LSAT

GPT-5: 140+ on AMC

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

Related questions

Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard

Will GPT-5 ace exams?

Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025?

Will GPT-5.2 reach 1500 on LMArena (no style-control)

GPT-5: 100+ on AMC

GPT-5: >178 LSAT

GPT-5: 120+ on AMC

GPT-5: 140+ on AMC

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules