@mods this was in Bloomberg today:

Of resolving actually possible if we don't get a official number @mods

@TheWabiSabi If there are good, credible estimates then we will probably resolve based on those.

@Tumbles xd

In today’s common sense news:

https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/18/24181106/apple-vision-pro-team-cheaper-headset

/Soli/will-apple-sell-more-than-1-million

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1398458/apple-vision-pro-shipments/

@SirCryptomind I can't access that, need an account. Any screenshots?

https://www.macrumors.com/2024/04/23/apple-cuts-vision-pro-shipments/

@tbird 😅

A little late to ask probably, but would this be net after returns? Say we were asking for revenue, then it would be highly relevant, and I could imagine if we ever see any official reporting for Apple it might actually be the net (as in, counting a sale as canceled/annulled rather than a sale + return).

@HenriThunberg I think this was answered earlier, will check comments later today

@HenriThunberg https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-apple-sell-500000-units-of-vis#qufwiy3xuuk

@na_pewno

@TheWabiSabi Be careful with conditionals now, my current understanding is that fees are not returned when a market is NAed

@Tumbles 😬

Is the market maker gone?

@TheWabiSabi he is but the market will be handled by mods

Related market on whether there will be price drops on Vision Pro

https://www.macobserver.com/news/report-apple-vision-pro-are-selling-like-hotcakes-check-sales-numbers/
They seemed to expect 350,000 shipped (sold?) units in 2024 in February, and unless they release a new version this year (which is very unlikely) there won't be major price drops so no reason to expect otherwise as of now.

@Quik2007 Ming-Chi Kuo (cited in the article you link, an Apple analyst with a decent track record) is currently projecting 650,000–700,000 units: https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/vision-pro更新-美國市場需求已大幅放緩-全球發佈時程預測-供應鏈擴產與退貨率解讀-新機種預測-投資策略-vision-pro-update-us-market-demand-f12ab8423404

Seems like the biggest question is around the timing of international releases, not new versions. But I think this market should be at 60% or more.

@Quik2007 I don’t think Apple will lower the price, but the fact that it’s already on Woot on a slight discount isn’t exactly doing their target numbers any favors.

@KevinN woot.com says its sold out? So not exactly being sold there

@kurt If they were selling like hotcakes they wouldn’t even make it to Woot though.