Will fewer people die from road accidents in 2024 compared to 2023? (in the US, specifically)
Basic
10
Ṁ399
Jan 6
86%
chance

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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-2023-traffic-fatalities-2024-estimates
The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration today released its early estimates of traffic fatalities for 2024, projecting that 39,345 people died in traffic crashes. This represents a decrease of about 3.8% compared to the 40,901 fatalities reported in 2023 and marks the first time since 2020 that the number of fatalities fell below 40,000.

@mods deleted creator account.
Suggest above should be good enough or we will be waiting years. Especially as it doesn't look close.

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813670

Currently it looks like 2024 has a very good chance of having fewer road accident deaths than 2023, but the trend is not an absolute decider and 2024 still has two quarters that haven't been published, so I feel like it doesn't warrant a 91%.

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