Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)?
Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)?
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Ṁ19kresolved Nov 30
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If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date
Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas or to a few handpicked creators. This is about the general public.
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@NoRespect He might not resolve it but the mods can. It's well-specified enough for someone else to do it.
If they setup a system whereby ordinary people can make requests (for free or for money) but these are reviewed by human moderators before being input, or after the video has generated, will this count?
Just to clarify, if they license to studios and selected partnerships (e.g. Netflix, Twitch etc.) would that count as the general public?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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