Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/10th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026? | Manifold

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/10th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Plus

22

Ṁ1270

2026

85%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The total power consumption could be estimated to be around 50-60 million kWh for training GPT-4.

1/10th of this energy = 5-6 million kWh

1/100th of this energy = 0.5-0.6 million kWh

See calculations below:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Technical AI Timelines

#GPT-4 speculation

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ500 YES

Jensen Huang (CEO of NVIDIA) said that with Blackwell GPUs, you could train GPT-4 with only about 4 MW of power consumed. Looks like even without algorithmic improvements we can get there.

Approx 4x efficiency improvement from silicon alone, based on latest GPUs being announced now (specifically mi300x Vs a100).

Related questions

Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?

Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 2025

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 4090 by March 2025

Will any open source LLM with <20 billion parameters outperform GPT-4 on most language benchmarks by the end of 2024?

Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?

Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033

Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 2025

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 4090 by March 2025

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Will any open source LLM with <20 billion parameters outperform GPT-4 on most language benchmarks by the end of 2024?

Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?

Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules