What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back?
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Premium
29
Ṁ54k
2031
1%
Resolves No at end of 2024
2%
Resolves No at end of 2025
3%
Resolves No at end of 2026
4%
Resolves No at end of 2027
4%
Resolves No at end of 2030
Resolved
NO
Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

These markets resolve No on popular market resolution dates, so the percentage of these markets show the opportunity cost of money for markets resolving on those dates.

There are existing markets for this already, but they were created while Manifold was giving loans for long term markets, which caused interest rates to be much lower. And there is no incentive to correct them by buying Yes unless you think other traders will need to liquidate their positions to free up capital, so they do not reflect the current risk-free interest rate.

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@ahalekelly What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are back?

super cool market, great idea

bought Ṁ90 NO

@ahalekelly could you please resolve this :)

shouldn't this be unranked? (I'm not sure, just asking)

@GastonKessler I think it would be unranked because it is not predicting anything. I'll mark it as unranked right now but if someone has a good rationale for keeping it ranked, we have until the end of the month to un-unrank it without influencing leagues.

War hero GM putting 20 on yes 😍

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