Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050? | Manifold

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Plus

15

Ṁ1006

2050

62%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Strength can be assessed through either human play or through playing with machines. GM level means >2500, or whatever the rating cutoff is for the GM title at resolution

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

What is the definition of a language model? I'd imagine that architectures and techniques will change a lot over 25 years.

@MaxMorehead if it can have a conversation, and doesn’t have a architecture for playing chess

@ashly_webb So a whole brain emulation is a language model?

@MaxMorehead Yeah. A literal human brain wouldn't count though

@ashly_webb >doesn’t have a architecture for playing chess

So, like AlphaZero (with a chatbot added)??

Related questions

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will AI be able to generate correct images of a chess game in 2024?

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Will a Large Language Model beat me at chess this year?

Will chess be solved by 2100?

Will any OpenAI model win a chess match against IM by the end of 2024?

-3% 1d8% chance

When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?

Related questions

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will any OpenAI model win a chess match against IM by the end of 2024?

Will AI be able to generate correct images of a chess game in 2024?

When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Will a Large Language Model beat me at chess this year?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Will chess be solved by 2100?

Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules