Perplexity's resume :
The chance that the Supergirl movie will make over $600 million worldwide is very low—likely under 15%, based on current evidence and context.

Key Evidence & Reasoning:

• Context from Recent DC Performance: The latest Superman film—intended as a universe-launching tentpole—has strong critical and audience reception but is still struggling to reach even $600 million worldwide, with current projections naming $550–600 million as a reasonable estimate and a high-end outlier at $700 million. Warner Bros. itself would be satisfied at $500 million for Superman, which reflects recalibrated studio expectations in today's market.

• Box Office Tracking and Predictions for Supergirl: Across expert and fan predictions, most now view $400–450 million as an optimistic worldwide total for Supergirl. Many seasoned box-office followers predict far less, citing doubts about character recognition, franchise fatigue, and recent DC underperformances (e.g., The Flash, Shazam 2).

• Market and Competitive Environment: Supergirl is releasing during a crowded summer (July 2026), facing direct competition from major franchises such as Spider-Man and animated blockbusters, which will limit its box office staying power and audience share. Superman's international performance has been "mixed" despite the property’s global recognition, and Supergirl, with weaker brand awareness, is expected to struggle even more outside North America.

• Budget & Financial Risk: Early estimates suggest a break-even (including marketing) at around $600–660 million. If Superman, much more famous and strongly promoted, can't reach this range, it's highly improbable Supergirl will surpass it.

• Sample "Optimistic" Forecast: One public box office forecast (not industry-official) lists Supergirl at $545 million worldwide—still below the $600 million mark.

• Fan and Analyst Sentiment: Even generous predictions cap possibilities at $450 million with most seeing sub-$400 million as probable, barring a strong domestic breakout or viral word-of-mouth phenomena.