Resolves Yes

Polymarket is up to 77% Carney. We'll see if it changes in the next 12 hours as reactions to the debate get shared, but currently it looks like Carney was the winner.

Early polling shows a Carney slightly ahead https://abacusdata.ca/2025-federal-election-debate-reaction-flash-poll/

@Gabrielle Carney increase in odds after the debate doesn't actually indicate that he won, it indicates that the debate didn't change many people's minds and therefore the current polling will remain steady, and therefore as we approach the election date it will approach 100% odds, especially as the last remaining "big change" event (the debate) has now passed without a big change.

The Abacus poll actually shows a Poilievre win. Favorability was better for Carney (positive minus negative), but as for who earned their vote, Poilievre leads at 43% to Carney's 40%. And even more damning for Carney supporters, of those who watched the entire debate, 47% favored Poilievre while 37% favored Carney. Carney relies on low information voters who couldn't watch the entire debate, and therefore his positive rating is actually irrespective of his debate performance, meaning the title unfortunately doesn't match the description in this case.

Regardless, Pierre will turn this ship around, he will continue to inform voters of the dangers of continuing down this dark Liberal path for any longer

I don't understand why this was trading at 37% but whatever

@bens I should have bought way more YES shares, but I assumed everyone knew something I didn't about polymarket dynamics

@bens the debate is for Carney to lose. He's not that strong of a debater. And polymarket is a bit conservative piled. Still likely this resolves 50/50 imo

@jgyou and i oop

This is not looking good for Pierre and the debate hasn't even happened lol. I'm gonna kick myself if it is a 2% random victory.

@HillaryClinton It was probably smart to hedge either way.

@ChadCotty the real reason I bet is because Carney went down in his odds to 73 for a few hours. Probably just noise though.

@bagelfan What happens if the probability changes by more than 1% but less than 2%?

@evan We are using the displayed probability, which is rounded to the nearest integer unless very close to extremes.

There is talk of pushing back the French debate

@jgyou It was pushed forward by two hours, since it was only moved by a little bit I'll keep the same times for comparing the market prices

@traders Carney's price was 74c at noon today

Weird spikes right on the times for checking the relative price change may be ignored if a majority of Manifold users vote to do so on a poll.

LUNGE or NOT A LUNGE?????

April 18th, Noon EST: