By the end of 2024, will Ukraine still hold any of the Russian territory it currently holds?
Plus
136
Ṁ32kJan 1
94%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
According to ISW or similar
Edit: To address a potential edge case, this still resolves YES if Ukraine gets pushed back to the border but then regains some ground before the end of the year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Just to be clear, I think this should resolve No if Ucrainian forces will leave the occupied land willingly, following a peace treat, right?
(Edit: i meant no 😅)
I would think that's a NO, since they'd relinquished it. Good question to clarify early! @benjaminIkuta ?
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a separate Ukrainian incursion into Russia before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will Russia take more territory than what Ukraine will regain between beginning and EOY 2024
76% chance
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?
1% chance
Will Ukraine regain control of its pre-2014 territory (including Crimea and Donbas) by 2025?
1% chance
By the end of 2024, Ukraine will sign a peace treaty that cedes all currently Russia-occupied land
12% chance
At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?
82% chance
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
18% chance
Will the Ukraine war be over by the end of 2024?
2% chance
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
25% chance