@HillaryClinton @MingCat wanna fill my limitorder on semiotic? YES at 45%

@Bayesian well I'm not exactly gonna bet on you if you're betting against yourself lmao

@Jessef0226 @travis What are your thoughts? You guys are predicted to lose, even though you're in 1st and 3rd. #Whales

Shameless plug to prove a point:

https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-anyone-with-a-net-worth-below

@HillaryClinton Well I can't really blame my net worth because my cash balance hasn't dropped below 200k since election night. I'm just not very good at finding big trades.

@travis but you could do more low value trades that tie up your cash balance, no?

@HillaryClinton Well I could spend more time hunting for trades, but I already take every profitable trade that I can find.

@brod What are your thoughts on the pay to win nature of this? You have any stats on the correlation between net worth and chance of winning?

@HillaryClinton I don’t have any stats but there’s definitely a correlation, net worth compounds

Ideally if leagues are designed to measure skill you’d want to judge on risk-adjusted percentage returns, not raw profits. Otherwise you can max your win probability without any skill by coin flipping as a whale

But raw profit is a schelling point, no one’s gonna disagree how to measure it, other exchanges do it… idk

@brod I feel like percent return should be a component instead of purely raw gains. Otherwise most people have 0% chance of winning unless they do a coin flip.

Like right now Jesse and Travis are doing really well, but will never be predicted to win because their net worths are too low.

high percent return also gets harder as your networth grows so idk. correlation between high net worth and chance of winning is very high bc both are caused by being good, but i'd be curious ab the diff in correlation if you only take ppl with high networth because they won a coinflip, or bc they bought mana, rather than amassing it over hundreds of markets

@Bayesian yeah scaling is a skill in itself, M10k profit is more impressive if you have M100k net worth than M1mil but 1% profits is more impressive on M1mil than M100k

net worth does measure skill but also time on the site and luck to an extent

@brod I'm not an expert on these things, but something like 50% profit, 50% ROI would be fairer. Sure, in the super long run things will even out, but that takes years.

@Bayesian correlation is very high over years. But Month to month, it's much easier for a whale to win.

If I give two equally skilled players 100k and 200k, the 200k person is going to win more in raw points.

@HillaryClinton Yeah for sure

*if they are both past some skill threshold but presumably that was implied

folks are doing significantly better than last month afaict. market volatility favors the bold?

Number go up = dopamine

@brod No way...

Did loans change? I'm getting less mana as of 2 days ago.

@HillaryClinton There’s max leverage per market relative to your networth

which will certainly apply in your case with the russia ukraine conflict

@Bayesian Thanks! It's not written in the loan rules.