Will Syria federalize before 2030?
Will Syria federalize before 2030?
Basic
10
Ṁ111
2030
50%
chance

As of late 2023, the Syrian civil war is still ongoing. One proposed solution to end the conflict is the adoption of a federal system of government, as opposed to the current government under Bashar al-Assad which is a unitary system.

This question resolves YES if Syria becomes a federation before 2030, most easily checked by referring to Wikipedia's Syria infobox "Government" section for the word "federal." Other credible souces may be considered as necessary.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
reposted 4mo

The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have seized Homs and suburbs of Damascus (NYTimes). Assad's hold on the country is looking tenuous for the first time in years. If Assad were to fall, the country might federalize in post-war negotiations between different rebel groups. On the other hand, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is an al-Qaeda breakaway with the goal of creating a fundamentalist Islamic state, whereas the Kurdish-held region is a self-declared libertarian socialist state.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules