
Will Peter Singer ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Plus
22
Ṁ14052046
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Singer
Resolves YES if he wins the Nobel Peace Prize, resolves NO if he dies and doesn't win the Nobel Peace Prize within a year (in case he gets it posthumously that year).
Close date if for his 100th birthday, but I will update it if he (and I) are still alive and AGI hasn't closed manifold.markets
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
@BTE I think that if you are a finalist but then die between when you are selected and when the prize is awarded, they give posthumously: https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/first-posthumous-nobel-awarded
that's why I added the extra year, just in case
Related questions
Related questions
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 be related to the Palestine conflict?
15% chance
Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?
4% chance
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 be related to the Palestine conflict?
20% chance
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
1% chance
Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?
44% chance
Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?
8% chance
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
4% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Nobel peace prize before 2100?
8% chance