What is your personal prior for Manifold still being around in 2030? | Manifold

What is your personal prior for Manifold still being around in 2030?

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<20%

20-40%

40-60%

60-80%

>80%

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Conditional on no ASI?

@ArmandodiMatteo No. That's part of the reason I made this poll, since markets are in large part conditional on no ASI as-is.

I suspect I may be low balling because I don't know much about the sites past. But purely on gut I would go for a round 17%

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