Which parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?
Which parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?
1
Ṁ152029
50%
AfD
50%
FDP
50%
SPD
50%
Grüne
50%
Linke
50%
CDU
28%
BSW
This market resolves based on the results of the next Thuringian state election.
For each party listed:
Resolves YES if the party wins more seats in the Landtag of Thuringia compared to the number of seats it won in the 2024 state election
Resolves NO if the party wins the same number or fewer seats.
If no election is held by 2030, all options will resolve NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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