Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?
Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?
Plus
40
Ṁ9012031
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@FranklinBaldo I don't see why it would be any harder than e.g. StarCraft II. Although I don't think that AI was trained on strictly bottom-up data. Certainly the controller had some intermediate layer of processing it passed through
Does the AI have to actually play the game well? Does it have to win the whole campaign?
Also this seems close to doable even now, it's more a question of whether DeepMind would care to spend the of millions of dollars needed to do so.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
39% chance
Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?
80% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
79% chance
By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
18% chance
By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
32% chance
Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
90% chance
By the end of 2024 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
2% chance
Will there exist open-source text-to-game AI models that can create a game like Halo 3 just by prompting by end of 2025?
16% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
51% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
69% chance