Will Gazans displaced following Israel's evacuation orders be allowed back to Northern Gaza by EOY 2024?
Will Gazans displaced following Israel's evacuation orders be allowed back to Northern Gaza by EOY 2024?
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Will Gazans who fled to the south as a result of the Israeli evacuation orders be allowed back to Northern Gaza (e.g. Gaza City) by January 1st, 2025?
Question resolves positively if a major news outlet (e.g. AP, BBC, CNN, Reuters) confirms at least 100,000 Gazans (out of those displaced by the evacuation orders issued after October 7th, 2023) have been allowed to return, are in the process of returning, or have returned to the homes they abandoned following the evacuation of Northern Gaza by the first day of 2025.
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With IDF poised to enter Rafah any day now, will there be an improvement to Gazans' situation by the end of the year?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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