Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?
Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?
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Xi would have to say something like "AI extinction risk is plausible and worth worrying about."
By "AI extinction risk," I mean the possibility of AI systems being largely responsible for the death of all humans.
Resolves according to my judgment, although I'm very open to hearing arguments.
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Just to be sure, it would have to be him in particular saying this, with direct reliable audio/video evidence or some statement officially attributed to him for the market to resolve YES, and e.g. an official document or communication from the government that does not attribute the concern directly to him personally (even if paraphrased) would resolve as NO, correct?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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