When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?
Basic
3
Ṁ902031
5%
2025
15%
2026
15%
2027
15%
2028
15%
2029
30%
≥2030 or never
5%
From Altman NYT DealBook interview [0]
Altman provided new numbers on ChatGPT’s adoption, including 300M weekly active users, 1B daily messages, and 1.3M U.S. developers on the platform.
2020 Facebook report:
On Facebook’s family of apps alone, people send more than 100 billion messages to their friends and family each day
I wonder when will be the crossover point?
(I'm not sure if Altman’s number is just messages sent to/by ChatGPT or in both directions. For the purpose of this market, let's count messages sent by ChatGPT or by users, to make it more even.)
Messages sent by AIs in FB apps don't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will my daily average usage of the ChatGPT app surpass 15mins in Jan 2025?
39% chance
Will GPTs other than DALL-E account for 10% or more of ChatGPT queries in 2024?
39% chance
Will ChatGPT charge a subscription fee for its use sometime from now throughout the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will ChatGPT 5 be capable of not logging you out every other day?
56% chance
Will the ChatGPT UI/UX change significantly before the end of 2025, altering core user interactions and functionality?
64% chance
When Will Chat GPT 5.0 Be Released?
Will it be possible to talk to ChatGPT via iMessage by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will it be possible to talk to ChatGPT via text message on any smartphone by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will ChatGPT have the largest number of subscribers of all LLM chat tools at the end of 2025?
36% chance
Will the price of ChatGPT Plus increase before the end of H2 2024?
4% chance