United States Recession by End of Q2?
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Ṁ15kSep 25
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Resolves YES if there are two consecutive negative quarters. Based on 'Third Estimate' figures.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@SaviorofPlant https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html
Q1 first estimate: -0.3% GDP growth
Close enough to the margin that it could be revised to positive, and Q2 will have less imports which provides an artificial boost to GDP, but this market was definitely underpriced at 19% yesterday
@creator Given that the end date is 9/25/2025, I assume this has to be Q1 and Q2 on 2025? (Assuming the third estimate for Q4 of 2024 doesn't suddenly become negative)
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