When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved? | Manifold

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Plus

41

Ṁ1668

2028

54%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

When this market resolves YES:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708

will most manifold users think AGI really has been achieved?

Resolves to Manifold poll. Will be open for a week and boosted until it gets 100+ participants.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Manifold Features

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

filled a Ṁ10 YES at 64% order

I think this should resolve to N/A because they will actually all be dead before it resolves at all.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The linked market cannot resolve YES. It is a numeric.

@KongoLandwalker i know i just dont care

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 28% order

got a 10k limit order at the market price

Comment hidden

Related questions

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?

If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton?

Will it be publicly revealed before 2030 that AGI had actually already been achieved before the year 2000?

Related questions

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton?

At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will it be publicly revealed before 2030 that AGI had actually already been achieved before the year 2000?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules