@jim If I recall correctly, when this market was created there was only a single (or at least clearly primary) leaderboard on Chatbot Arena. This is no longer the case. In my opinion the course of action that would be most accurate to the market as stated is to count any model that tops any of the leaderboards.

Anthropic topped the leaderboard on October, 3rd...

Anthropic seems way too high here, with Claude 3.7 currently in 20th place on the leaderboard, well over 100 points behind the leaders.

Similar market for arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/jim/will-a-company-other-than-openai-xa

@jim happy new year, this is a YES

Resolves to a single winner? Top 3? What are the criteria?

@ProjectVictory resolves to all that have a model at the top of the leaderboard at any point in 2025.

@jim But what is defined as "at the top"? Top 1? Top 2? Top 3? Top 5? Top 10? Top 100?

@komplexkonjugat Having the highest Elo score on the leaderboard.

@jim so it will only resolve to more than one company if two or more models from different companies have exactly the same Elo?

@komplexkonjugat

@komplexkonjugat It's at any point in 2025, so there could be multiple leaders at different times.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 that was the part I was missing, thanks.