Will be resolved by Manifold moderators based on evidence I submit to them.
1,000
3.00@skibidist congrats.
I ended up taking a different route (trading) but it feels the same here.
The fact that it's easy doesn't mean one shouldn't be maximally disciplined though. That's a mistake a lot of poker players made in the hayday of online poker. It was so easy to print hundreds of thousands a year that they just did that and called it a day. And of course when Black Friday happened and the money dried up they all regretted not treating poker more seriously and making maybe 5x as much as they did.
@jim not a concern for me I think, need two orders of magnitude more to get to space so will be doing a catch-up for a pretty long time still .. gl with the trading and hope you steer it well through whatever's coming
@RanaG if you had my real name all you would see is my poker winnings, my physiognomy, and a couple ultra-boring philosophy essays. No LinkedIn ATM although I'll have to make one for another market.
Anyone betting 'no' on this at 5% is likely to end up with an ear full of cider, @ElliotDavies.
@ElliotDavies I don't have one. Didn't graduate high school, have no other qualifications, have never founded a business of any kind, have never been employed. Am in my early 20s.
@jim Thanks for sharing so candidly. How strong is your motivation to create a business?
@jim Nice, thanks for sharing. The bad news is my base rate odds would be really low. Probably below 1%. The good news is you can update me really quickly with 10 hours or 100 hours of work. Registering a business, finding cofounders, creating some sort of business plan, making a webiste. All of these things - even done on their own - would bump your odds up really quickly