Will Bashar al-Assad survive 2025?
Will Bashar al-Assad survive 2025?
Plus
64
Ṁ21k2026
94%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For purposes of this market, "Bashar al-Assad" is only Bashar al-Assad (born 11 September 1965), who is the president of Syria (at the time of market creation on 8 December 2024).
This market will resolve NO after at least 24 hours following the Associated Press publishing news of his death. If there is high uncertainty surrounding such news, then market resolution will be delayed.
This market will resolve YES if Assad is still alive on 2 January 2026.
If Assad goes missing during 2025 and remains missing into 2026, then this market will delay resolving.
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ50 YES3mo
Sold NO and bought YES because he's in Russia now. He will last a year. Maybe later he'll fall down the stairs. Or survive, like Snowden.
Bought NO because of plane crash speculations.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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