Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
Basic
6
Ṁ9522034
1D
1W
1M
ALL
62%
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states
36%
Trump wins and 9 nuclear-armed states at most
1%
Trump loses and 10+ nuclear-armed states
1%
Trump loses and 9 nuclear-armed states at most
Inspired this post about joint markets, here is a variant of this conditional Metaculus question.
Resolves according to Metaculus. See the fine-print there.
Trumps chances: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?YES
Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006.
Close date is currently taken from Metaculus but will almost certainly be extended.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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It doesn't look like Metaculus will extend the close date, are you saying you'll extend this market?
@NathanScott I won't be able to resolve it until 2035 and I why not allow the trading to continue? I still want to the close date to trigger to take a look at the Metaculus side.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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