Which teams will make the 2025 MLB Postseason? (Division Series)

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Ṁ10k

Oct 4

94%

Los Angeles Dodgers

70%

New York Yankees

65%

San Diego Padres

63%

New York Mets

62%

Philadelphia Phillies

60%

Boston Red Sox

54%

Texas Rangers

53%

Chicago Cubs

51%

Minnesota Twins

38%

Houston Astros

37%

Baltimore Orioles

35%

Cleveland Guardians

35%

Detroit Tigers

34%

Atlanta Braves

33%

Milwaukee Brewers

33%

Seattle Mariners

32%

Tampa Bay Rays

31%

Arizona Diamondbacks

27%

Kansas City Royals

17%

Toronto Blue Jays

Which teams will make it to the 2025 MLB Postseason?

Only 8 teams will Resolve YES here, as winning the wild card will not be sufficient for a YES Resolution, teams need to make the Division Series to count.

Note: Regardless if teams move cities during the 2024-2025 offseason, your vote for them will still count.

Also bet on the World Series winner here:

Which team will win the 2025 MLB World Series?‌

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sold Ṁ100 A team that does not... NO2mo

Do the Athletics count as Oakland A's for the purposes of this market?

2mo

@Tripping Or do they count as "team that does not exist"?

1mo

@Tripping the "Oakland As [even if they don't play in Oakland]"? I think that's probably the athletics yes

2mo

This market was way too rich in "Yes" - I just took a no position on ~every team and the expected value is still 10 teams making the playoffs.

I turned https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-inaugural-2025-edition these power rankings into scores from 2 to 8, averaging 5 - white sox at 2, dodgers at 8. I got the schedule from this guy https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/comments/1e6mrv0/2025_mlb_schedule_spreadsheet/. To simulate a game, I pick randomly from 0 to (team1 + team2), and if the number is < team1, team 1 wins. Did the same for the wild card 5-game series. In case my power rankings were wrong, I also added or subtracted 1 at random, 25% +1 25% -1, before each season. Ran 1000 samples of this to get the probabilities. Partial results:
Dodgers 84%
Yankees 74%
Braves 61%
Phillies 59%
Mets 58%
Astros 57%
Orioles 49%
Brewers 41%

Other takeaways, that the schedule simulation adds to the power ranking:
- The AL west is full of middle-of-the-road teams, the Astros (power level 6) drop from 67% to 57% when I added power ranking randomness, because the Rangers and Mariners are both power level 5.
- The Yankees are punching way above their (power level 7) weight class with 74%. The other three teams on that level are the Braves, Mets and Phillies - and they're all in the same division, which is kind of crazy. Thanks, wild card!

Who tops our inaugural 2025 Power Rankings?

Last season was the year that Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge blew our minds (again), the year Paul Skenes made his debut and instantly became unforgettable, and the year the Dodgers won their eighth World Series. But that’s all in the rearview mirror. It’s all about 2025 now.

5mo

@creator please change the description here to reflect that teams need to make it to the division series. The wild card round is officially part of the postseason.

5mo

@DanielTilkin added DS to the title

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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

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