This market resolves YES if Risk, the insurance underwriter operating on Manifold, fails to pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity or insolvency reasons before Jan 1, 2029.
• A valid insurance policy means a loan or contract that Risk agreed to cover and that was not denied for insurance fraud or similar disqualifying reasons.
• Delays beyond a reasonable timeframe (e.g. several weeks or months without good explanation, or total non-payment) will count as failure to pay.
• If Risk explicitly states they are insolvent or unable to meet obligations, this also resolves YES.
• Delays of just a few days or a normal processing period will not count, as long as Risk ultimately fulfills the policy.
• If the insurance claim is reasonably disputed, this market will not resolve YES on that basis alone.
Please raise this to my attention if something important happens, as I won’t be watching the insurance polices super closely.