Please read the entire description before betting!
1. Immediately after a new trader bets on the market
2. There is a 1/100 chance that the market resolves to the AMM probability that the new trader left the market at
This continues indefinitely, until the 1/100 hits.
Everyone else can trade in the meantime.
Say Steve just joined the market and moved it from 42 to 70:
- If the 1/100 hits, the market resolves to 70%
- If the 1/100 misses, it just continues
Upon market close, the last 10 new traders will be managrammed 50 mana from me.
"Kill himself" describes a non-coerced suicide.
I will not trade in this market.
(last check: 115 traders)
1,000
3.00
@bens what was the point of getting so high on the leaderboard if no one believes me about anything smh
Suggestion: make a market with this resolution criteria where the title question has an objectively verifiable truth value and probability (e.g. "Will a 90-10 weighted coin flip via fairlyrandom land on heads? [read description]"), then see whether the market continues to remain near the hypothetical true odds that would apply if it were to be genuinely tested (in this case 90%), if not then the market mechanism can be considered experimentally falsified
@nikki I would, but I don't know how to set up the automatic resolution mechanism, and it would take absolutely ages to keep calculating it manually each new trader 😞
@TheAllMemeingEye You can just do the rolls later and resolve to the nth trader retroactively. It should be functionally equivalent.
@nikki I think what @TheAllMemeingEye is getting at is that new traders have a 1/100 chance of being nominally rewarded for "correcting" the market because they were randomly chosen as the trader who is correct.
Consider two camps that honestly believe the market should be 10% or 90%. One camp will be randomly punished. There is a bias to reward the more populous camp but RNG can also reward the minority. So max EV is not to set the market to what you believe the odds are but to set the market to what you believe the popular odds are.
All that being said, the juice isn't worth the squeeze to oppose the popular persuasion nor to take your 1/100 chance to just be the one that resolves the market, so the market can be expected to resolve similarly to a poll.
@TheAllMemeingEye the issue is that very few traders have personal opinions on "will a weighted coin land with certain frequency..." but many traders have personal opinions on controversial questions like this one.
@nikki the incentives on these markets are absolutely not to bet "truthfully", in the sense of a true belief on the explicit question, but rather to bet "truthfully" on what they truly think other bettors will bet at. It's more like a Keynesian Beauty Contest in that sense.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen You are correct. 73 failed d100 rolls in a row has a 48% probability of occurring, so precisely as you say: it is kinda on the unlikely side.