Whether aliens really exist
Whether aliens really exist
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6
Ṁ90Mar 29
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I saw a UFO once
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Hi @siqi, this market closes in a few days and doesn't have any resolution criteria defined. It should probably be cancelled, and keep in mind that if you just want to poll people's opinion on a topic, rather than give them something to bet over, you can create a poll instead of a market.
Alternately, you could define some criteria for what people would be betting on, and by what date, if they bet in this market (and perhaps you might extend the date so the market is open longer than a week). Something like "will the new York Times report on the existence of aliens before <some date>", or some other way of telling traders what would cause this market to resolve YES or NO, and when.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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