Relevant aggregated release market here: https://manifold.markets/jgyou/in-what-year-will-silksong-be-relea

This market always felt like irrational hopium to me, but given how long team cherry waited to announce that the game was delayed beyond the 1 year timespan we had before, I actually wouldn't rule out that they would make a last minute release announcement as well.

They are no longer "indie" and have to work with many official partners, I have my doubts a surprise release could be coordinated with all parties involved.

2023 release? Maybe.

Suprise release? No.