Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?
Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?
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SpaceX first landed a Falcon 9 on December 22 2015. Will any other entity manage a similar feat on or before December 22 2025, an entire decade later?
Parachute or runway landings don’t count (ex Electron, Shuttle SRBs), though a catch (similar to the SS/SH recovery system) would. Soft water landings don’t count - must be on a ship or landing pad. A recovery failure after successful landing in one piece (not including immediate toppling over/explosion) would resolve true.
Hop tests do not count. Suborbital flights, unless on a near-orbital trajectory (like Starship’s flight tests) do not count. The flight of the second stage doesn’t need to be successful.
New Glenn is the only credible contender IMO. Other aspirants include Neutron, Stoke Nova, and Zhuque 3, but as far as I’m aware they are targeting 2026+ for their first recovery attempts.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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