Resolves N/A if OpenAI ceases to exist or they change numbering model
Resolves YES on release of 4.5 model strictly before a release of a model named gpt 5
Resolves NO on release of gpt 5 which isn't preceded by a release of 4.5. Resolves NO in case of a simultaneous release
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For anyone wondering what happened:
Sam Altman on X: "OPENAI ROADMAP UPDATE FOR GPT-4.5 and GPT-5: We want to do a better job of sharing our intended roadmap, and a much better job simplifying our product offerings. We want AI to “just work” for you; we realize how complicated our model and product offerings have gotten. We hate" / X
@MalachiteEagle different market but I remember talking with you about how I had no idea wtf OpenAI was going to do with naming and o3 access considering the run time costs and branding questions. Turns out the answer is “hide all the o3 levels corresponding to different CoT settings behind an interface and name that we definitely thought would be something else.” Wild.
@LiamZ Branding was definitely a challenge there but I really wish they would just release all of the models on the API even if they didn't want to have all of them as options in ChatGPT. This seems like a convenient way for OpenAI to silently nerf models when they feel like making higher margins
@JaundicedBaboon o3 as used in the benchmarks is not remotely financially viable. This is a way to obfuscate that while keeping the hype train going.
It appears openAI is releasing a new checkpoint of GPT-4o soon, which might mean there's no GPT-4.5 coming out this year
The last time Jimmy predicted GPT-4.5 he got it totally wrong, but maybe this time… https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1833595024543781088
probably won't be called GPT-4.5 but a major new release before GPT-5 is looking more likely
GPT Next is probably a stand-in for whatever model they release next.
They reportedly want to release a strawberry-powered model this fall, before they release Orion, which is a big new model. Orion will probably be called GPT-5 and i have no idea what they'll call the strawberry model.
OpenAI Dev Day (three dates in October-November) announcement: "While we know developers are waiting for our next big model, which we shared has begun training earlier this year, these events will focus on advancements in the API and our dev tools"
Doesn't strictly preclude a model dropping before or around the Dev Days.
It doesn't preclude it at all. There are a limited amount of spots available, so they don't want anyone unnecessarily taking up a slot because they were hoping for a product announcement there.
This is however yet another (small) sign that they are planning their next model release to be their "next big model" that they announced earlier this year; which is obviously not going to be called GPT-4.5.
"[...] which is obviously not going to be called GPT-4.5"
Why is that obvious?
I don't think it's obvious either. In May they said they recently started a frontier training run. Recently could mean with the last few days or weeks, or could mean a month ago or more.
If the model comes out soon and/or if it's not powerful enough, they could call it 4.5.
seems to me like an odd choice to call your next big model, trained on a huge new (prob >100k H100s) supercomputer the unexciting name GPT-4.5. They‘ve been calling it „GPT-NEXT“ in their slides, contrasted with the GPT-3 and GPT-4 era models, so GPT-5 or something else entirely seems like the next step (they count GPT-3.5 as part of the GPT-3 era)
placing a 500 limit order at 50% if you are interested
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