yes, I am genuinely looking for a boyfriend
https://x.com/typeofemale/status/1946702131043394011
feel free to bet on whether I shed my femcel status and celebrate my birthday with a guy i love
1,000
3.00
Hey that's not very polite! Especially since I know it is specifically referring to me alone lol
@TheAllMemeingEye It's... not obvious to me that markets like this one are harmful in any way? It's also not obvious that they are "will the sun rise tomorrow" level useless? I mean, yeah, there are serious markets about big events of importance to many people, which function like prediction markets are supposed to function to be accurate; I like those, surely. It does seem that, if a market is about someone's personal life, traders have a ridiculously small amount of relevant information compared to the market creator, so it doesn't have this it's-provably-ubeatable-estimation-of-the-true-probability-so-look-at-it-and-shut-up-mere-mortal quality to it, which is sad. But still. Calling probabilities with any competence at all is hard? It can be nice to get a prior for your situation with a market, which you can then update based on events that actually happen in your life, which you can or cannot share with the traders. And this market has context! There is a link to a twitter acc! There is some number of markets like "will I have sex by X" or whatever, with no description, and I remember seeing your comments under some of those where you were asking for context and didn't treat the market like it was useless. Also, both of us participated enthusiastically in eg tables vs chairs market, which provided useful information to zero people, which is one less than this market, and didn't really have a problem with that, I think. Maybe even more than one, because the fact that I see someone's market "will I have a boyfriend by eoy" at 30% does change my world model a little. Like, I don't regret seeing it.
That said, feel free to persuade me otherwise if you deem that a reasonable use of your time!
Oh dear, if I had a mana for every time I commented on a Typeofemale market and a user made the most bizarre, uncharitable misinterpretation of my comment physically possible, I'd have 2 mana, which isn't a lot but it's disheartening that it's happened, like, twice in the past three days.
On this occasion, my comment was an example of a rare anthropological phenomenon I like to refer to as a "joke". I shall enlist the help of a world renowned expert in this field to explain:
So basically the joke was that I was comparing this market to a "will the sun rise tomorrow" market as a way to hyperbolically imply that it is 100% guaranteed to resolve YES, as a display of support for Typeofemale's dating efforts. Phrasing it like a complaint was not intended as a literal complaint about this actual market, but rather the comedic extrapolation of this comparison, since actual "will the sun rise tomorrow" markets do arguably constitute a form of spam that clogs up the site. To drive home the ironic nature of the complaint, I ended with the intentionally redundant "smh (shaking my head) my head" and the overly dramatic expressioned eye rolling emoji "🙄".
It's also worth noting that the comment was reposted, indicating that I actually support and want to promote the market to others, which would not be true if I considered it spam. In addition, I have made multiple personal goals markets myself, including specifically relationship ones similar to this:
I'm stupid
That makes 2 of us, welcome to the club! :)
Sorry
It's ok, I sometimes make mistakes like this too, I'm also sorry for being overly snarky in response