Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If it's ambiguous whether the shooter is male, this market will resolve to N/A.
Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Acted alone (no accomplices): any accomplice associated with the shooting counts, including after-the-fact assistance (e.g., destroying evidence). If any such accomplice exists, this answer will not resolve as true.
Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A conviction or guilty plea in court would be sufficient evidence to resolve answers about the shooter's identity
Direct evidence would be sufficient
Circumstantial evidence or evidence described as "seemingly" implicating someone would not be sufficient to resolve
1,000
3.00Why are the options
"The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya"
"The shooter killed Charlie Kirk"
"is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat"
"Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14"
"Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head"
"Did it on purpose" etc.
resolve in the obvious directions? It is a near impossibility that these options do not resolve in the obvious directions.
Can you tell me why these options are not being resolved?
@121 You don't think there is a chance that the shooter isn't Tyler Robinson? I don't know with what credence I would bet Tyler Robinson is the shooter, but it's not 100%.
@vdb I mean, one can probably never be “100%” sure of anything, but we’re probably like >99.9% confident it’s him, no?
@bens @jonmast I agree that there is always a chance, and would not wait till my credence reaches 100% to resolve.
In this case some legal decision/legal announcement will probably still increase my credence, and that (or something with similiar effect) is what I'm waiting for.
(Thinking of 12 Angry Men)
@121 I don't think there is a chance that the shooter is a member of domain Bacteria. I don't think there is a chance that the shooter is not a member of domain Eukarya. I don't think there is a chance that the shooter is an extraterrestrial alien.
@vdb ah you want to wait for the trial to finish with a conviction?
Or would a guilty plea at the trial be enough to resolve?
Currently, there seems to be a confession (both to family and to a groupchat), video evidence seemingly implicating him, tons of circumstantial evidence (the bullet shell text matches his Steam game logs, etc), and no active denials on the part of him or his family as far as I can tell.
@bens A conviction or guilty plea in court would suffice. Other direct evidences would, too. "Seemingly" or "circumstantial" evidences would not.
@121 There’s definitely a chance that the shooter was an extraterrestrial alien. Not a very high chance, mind you, but it’s not zero.
@TheAllMemeingEye Is this intended to necessarily stay open for the rest of the shooter's life? Or should this resolve on the market closing date?
@Quroe it's about the rest of his life, but if necessary I'm ok with it being preliminarily resolved early with potential later re-resolution
Are we not banning the hard R (after the C word) on this site?
only 7 more likes until the prophecy is fulfilled