Completes full term
Trump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on or before that date as required by the Constitution.
Staying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term.

Does not complete term
Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive.

If Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market also resolves to this option.

Dies of natural causes or illness

Trump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President.

Dies from assassination or external violence
Trump dies as a result of assassination, attack, or any external act of violence while serving as President.

Resolution Notes:

• Outcome determined by official announcements and consensus from major news outlets.

• “Completes full term” requires Trump to leave office on or before January 20, 2029.

• “Does not complete term” includes any non-fatal early departure.

• “Natural causes or illness” = any internal medical cause (includes accidents not provably violent).

• “Assassination or external violence” = any fatal external attack (includes e.g. air crashes provably caused by hostile intent).

• This market is for predictive purposes only and does not advocate or endorse any outcome.