Currently Carter Center reports it's provisionally at 7, usually the provisionally figures increase by like at most 5 or something. An informed estimate would use the GW wrap ups, which contain information from a lot of months about worm counts, and also (though harder to extract without using an automated tool) will tell you how much the count tends to differ from the provisional estimate (I just was eyeballing and using my vague memories of occasionally perusing these documents).

@Xelad102c From previous GW wrapups

Year: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

Total case count: 27, 15, 13, 14

Year: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Case count up to September: 24, 11, 9, 9, 7

Diffs: +3, +4, +4, +5

this suggests a prediction of 7+(4±1.3) = 11±1.3 (using t distribution with 95% CI).

Ratios: 1.125, 1.364, 1.444, 1.556

this suggests a prediction of 7*(1.373±.324) = 9.6 ± 2.3 (using log normal distribution with 95% CI)

My intuition is that the ratio method is more accurate - after all, the thing that's happening is that we are looking only at the GW cases in the first 2/3 of the year.

There's more info in the tables, like month, region, and how many in each month/region of those infected were contained.

(deleted due to correction)

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