Will the United Healthcare CEO shooter be caught by June 2025?
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Plus
96
Ṁ64k
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
YES

I see no reason to be hasty but I do anticipate closing this soonish.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • Market will resolve YES if the shooter is found dead

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The shooter does not need to be convicted to resolve YES - being caught/found is sufficient.

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**** I think this is resolved

why you don't resolve for yes?

bought Ṁ250 YES

@francescogiachettomena think we're waiting for a final 'yes he did it' update

I am in a strange way disappointed that he seems to have been caught carrying a bunch of clear evidence of guilt. I had built up a mental image of the killer being an incredibly smooth operator - and assumed that all the evidence would have been destroyed or disposed of on the day of the killing.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and most criminals are stupid.

I see no reason to be hasty but I do anticipate closing this soonish.

@zax I mean now he's been charged, it's def the guy

I probably should ask: What do you mean by "caught"

If this is the guy I'll resolve it to yes

@zax does that mean he has to be convicted?

No

How does this resolve the shooter is found dead?

@nonnihil yes I think

@TheWabiSabi correct

Not sure if it's a white or a black pill, but interesting to see that even the rich in America only have 50% better odds of having their murders solved than the average Joe.

A single atypical murder should not be used to make class generalizations without deeper analysis

@Lop clearance rates for murders in NY are only 50%. I think the fact this murder is atypical probably makes it less likely to be solved, not more. The fact this is trading at 75% reflects the market's belief that the police is going to go the extra mile on this one, because it's a high profile case that involves a rich guy.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Odoacre I was thinking the same way. Ppl have too much faith in the system. It's not as good as we think it may be.

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