Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): This market will resolve based on announcements or nominations of pardons during the lame duck period, not just official pardons. This includes Trump announcing that he will pardon people when he takes office.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST): - Only new pardon announcements will count - previous announcements like the January 6th rioter pardons do not qualify (AI summary of creator comment)
@zax sure. But why lead with something that is going to be extremely unpopular. There is nobody Trump would pardon that is going to be widely lauded and it can only hurt his ability to work with a single seat majority in the house. The January 6 convicts in particular will need to wait IMO. Many other priorities.
@zax like I think Trump saying he will pardon someone is kinda like Biden saying he won’t, we should expect the opposite outcome from what they promise. Promises mean nothing to either of them.