Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category without filters (without style control or show deprecated), at the end of July 31st, 2025 11:59PM ET.
In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
See also:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-uIgZPlOt5d
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-A88UsyhdZz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-IZEIlPL8ZZ
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-5Ch5LQddE5
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-96p0nLU5A5
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-spP5uLOAQR
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-QcqLtdnQnN
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Previous months:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
1,000
3.00@Gugra Looking good on some benchmarks but vibe-testing seems not great so far, and lmarena is mostly about vibe-testing
