Criteria for a “Yes” Resolution:
• Completed Impeachment Process: President Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached as defined in point 1 above, with both the National Assembly’s passage of the impeachment motion and the Constitutional Court’s confirmation occurring before 11:59 PM Korean Standard Time (KST) on January 2nd, 2025.
• Resignation After Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office after the National Assembly passes an impeachment motion against him but before the Constitutional Court reaches a decision, and this resignation occurs before the deadline.
Criteria for a “No” Resolution:
• No Impeachment Motion Passed: The National Assembly does not pass an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol before the deadline.
• Impeachment Motion Not Confirmed or No Resignation: An impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly but is not confirmed by the Constitutional Court before the deadline, and President Yoon Suk Yeol does not resign after the motion is passed.
• Resignation Without Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office before any impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly.
• Removal by Other Means: President Yoon Suk Yeol leaves office due to death, incapacitation, or any method other than the impeachment process defined above.
Additional Clarifications:
• Time Zone: All times and dates refer to Korean Standard Time (KST, UTC+9).
• Sequence of Events: For a “Yes” resolution under point 2, the resignation must occur after the impeachment motion has been officially passed by the National Assembly.
• Legal Challenges: Any legal proceedings or appeals related to the impeachment that are unresolved by the deadline will not affect the market’s resolution.
• Extensions and Delays: Any extensions, delays, or procedural changes in the impeachment process after the deadline will not be considered.
1,000
3.00people trading here, this market requires either:
1) the national assembly vote to impeach him (which they just did) AND the constitutional court to confirm it, which has NOT happened and which has taken months in the past; OR
2) the national assembly vote to impeach him AND he resigns
he has shown no willingness to resign so far
the chance polymarket assigns to yoon getting out by ANY means in 2024 (not just resignation) is 12% (up from 10% before the impeachment vote just passed)
https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2024
@summer_of_bliss yeah, I was excited but it seems you're right
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c140xjv31lxo
South Korean lawmakers have voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed attempt to impose martial law, which sparked massive protests across the country.
[...]
Yoon has vowed to fight on and said he "will never give up", describing the vote as a temporary pause to his presidency.
[...]
The constitutional court now has 180 days to rule on whether Yoon's impeachment should be upheld or whether he can return to office. If it rules in favour of impeachment, an election for the next president must be called within 60 days.
Yoon has been suspended while Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has taken over as acting president.
Still, plenty of time left for him to buckle under the pressure of almost the entire country wanting him to go
@AlexanderTheGreater He may resign before impeachment. He's extremely unpopular, failed a coup, and his own party members voted to end martial law.