Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on January 1, 2025?
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Plus
112
Ṁ76k
Jan 1
85%
chance

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the title of president on January 1, 2025, even if he is suspended from his duties due to impeachment.

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

https://www.ft.com/content/fa9dafe4-7d63-4ef0-970e-5e259feb8778

The opposition is unable to get the few votes they need from the president's party for impeachment.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@MalachiteEagle so that’s probably true, but i think the party is officially pretending it’s not true. Look at the comments of the deputy vs director of the NIS

  • The impeachment vote is expected to take place in about a week

  • Impeachment requires 200 of 300 members of the National Assembly

  • Opposition currently holds 192 seats

  • 10 National Assembly members from the president's party voted against the declaration of martial law

  • The head of the president's political party rebuked him but has not weighed-in on impeachment

  • Removing the president would also mean removing all his cabinet members, and those positions are unlikely to be won back if his party members vote to impeach him

  • On the other hand, party members may lose reelection if they don't vote to impeach him

  • Once impeached, the president keeps his title but is suspended of power until a court rules on the impeachment 180 days later

  • Procedurally, the only way the president could change in the next 30 days is if he voluntarily resigns or dies

@SteveMichaels betting with the assumption that this market resolves based on title not whether he is the “acting president”

bought Ṁ100 YES from 80% to 81%

@GammaLaser yes, if he is president it will resolve YES even if he isn't carrying out his duties

even Nixon had the dignity to resign

bought Ṁ50 YES

note the inverted question

@PaperBoy Reasoning in the comments there seems to be skepticism that he can be impeached or removed by the court in just 28 days, and a belief that he will not resign

man i was about to make this market

@SaviorofPlant could make it for a different date?

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