Is this intended to be brain death by 2022 criteria or by 2070 criteria? I can't imagine these will be the same. If not clarified then the market will resolve to market probability and becomes whale bait.

Unless, of course, we are able to reverse brain death by all possible futuristic criteria, or conversely we remain unable to reverse brain death by 2022 criteria.

Also is this intended to be biological human brain death and not, say, frogs, or digital uploads?

@MartinRandall Human brain death by the 2070 criteria. Do you have any ideas on how to make this market more precise? Do you think brain death by the 2070 criteria would be too much vague? I searched a bit and found that right now "there is no clear-cut confirmatory test for brain death", but everybody kind of knows what it means

Selling all my shares since I have no way to know what this market's resolution criteria are actually going to be. I thought this market was about medical technology, not about predicting what words are going to mean in 50 years.

@GustavoMafra if I was making a market like this I would say "according to the 2022 Harvard definition for irreversible coma", or similar, and then quote it inline in case we lose the way back machine between now and 2070.

@MartinRandall Most sources that I look at use some definition like "irreversible unconsciousness with complete loss of brain function". We cannot include "irreversible" in our definition because it would make the question tautological, but "complete loss of brain function" sounds pretty common-sensical. Would that definition be precise enough to make the market more about medical technology than meaning of words?

Some more precise tests, which can often be interpreted as definitions, go like this:

> A final determination of brain death must involve demonstration of the total lack of electrical activity in the brain by two electroencephalographs (EEGs) taken twelve to twenty-four hours apart.

But that seems a bit over-specific to our current test technology which we don't know whether they will be used in 2070, which was what I was intending to avoid by leaving the criteria of brain death open

@GustavoMafra I think it could be irreversible by 2022 technology.

@MartinRandall Do you mean it would be no problem to include "irreversible" in the definition since we're talking about irreversible under 2022 technology? Anyway, I rewrote the description to have a clearer definition, but leaving the testing technology open. Let's see if people are more comfortable on making predictions with that

@GustavoMafra I did mean that. I like the current market definition, I think yes.