Before 2030 AI causes death of more than 5% of humans in less than a 3 month period.
Before 2030 AI causes death of more than 5% of humans in less than a 3 month period.
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7
Ṁ605
2030
5%
chance
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Ṁ1,000
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1y
61%
No global catastrophe
3%
Nuclear
6%
Biological
14%
Artificial Intelligence
91%
No global catastrophe
0.6%
Nuclear
1.9%
Biological
5%
Artificial Intelligence
1y

Most cases where this happens are cases where AI kills everyone. This is the relatively narrower and not very likely-seeming case of AI killing half a billion people without disrupting Manifold settlement.

This seems most likely to happen if somebody uses non-superintelligent AI to build a pandemic. Would that even count?

1y

@EliezerYudkowsky Can you elaborate a bit more on your reasoning for why the number of deaths is bimodally distributed across the range of outcomes? Which parameter(s) of the model have this thresholding behavior where AI suddenly goes from “kills no-one” to “kills everyone”?

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