Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship?
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13
Ṁ3233
2028
2%
Return a Starship to terra firma before 2026
1%
HLS prop-transfer demo before 2026
46%
Long-duration flight test before 2027
38%
Uncrewed lunar landing before Q3 2027
15%
Crewed moon landing before September 2028
Resolved
YES
In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025
Resolved
YES
Re-fly a Super Heavy first stage by Q2 2026

This question is based on the following article by Eric Berger:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/. Please see the article for more specifics about the scenario of each milestone.

  • Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the resolution criteria based on user feedback. The timing requirements for milestones have been clarified to use "before" rather than "by" for at least the first three items, addressing whether deadlines refer to the start or end of specified time periods.

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@Kire_ You say
Return a Starship to terra firma by 2026
but articles says
Return a Starship to terra firma (mid- to late 2025)

So I think you mean 'before' rather than 'by' on at least the first three items. Could you change to before or otherwise clarify whether it is 'by start of' or 'by end of' the periods in all of the answers?

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Kire_ this was done during flight 6 and can resolve YES: https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-6

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