Will a Congress-confirmed 2025 cabinet pick resign or be removed before June 30, 2025?
Will a Congress-confirmed 2025 cabinet pick resign or be removed before June 30, 2025?
Basic
2
Ṁ327Jul 2
94%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditions to resolve YES:
Cabinet pick must be nominated and confirmed through Congressional process
Cabinet appointee must resign, die, or otherwise be removed from position by midnight eastern daylight time on June 30, 2025.
Will resolve NO otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Who will be the first Cabinet member to leave in 2025?
Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?
57% chance
Will a member of the Trump cabinet be appointed through a recess appointment in 2025?
17% chance
Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2025?
36% chance
How many Trump Admin Cabinet members will be resigned or fired by the start of 2026?
How many Trump Admin Cabinet members will resign or be fired by the start of 2026?
Will Trump make any successful recess appointments to his cabinet in 2025?
17% chance
Will the Senate vote down any of Trump's cabinet picks in 2025?
2% chance
Will Elon Musk be given a Cabinet position by the end of June 2025?
3% chance
Will a party leader resign from position as leader and their seat as a result of the 2025 Australian Federal Election?