Which of these models have an ELO Rating in the LMARENA (formerly known as LMSYS) by the end of January 2025?
💎
Premium
6
Ṁ28k
Feb 1
70%
Gemini 2 (flagship)
52%
DeepSeek's r1
32%
Openai's o1 Pro
Resolved
YES
OpenAI's o1

If on January 31st 2025 or earlier a model has a score in the LMARENA leaderboard, the respective market resolves to YES.

Gemini 2.0 (flagship) resolves to YES if Google DeepMind implies that the model is their best Gemini 2.0 version, whatever that is called.

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bought Ṁ9,000 YES

@MP resolves Yes

opened a Ṁ103 NO at 90% order

o1 has a rating now!

bought Ṁ500 YES

Another question: You say the Gemini 2.0 resolves according to the "best" model. Does this include the "Thinking Mode"? So if Gemini 2.0 has an Elo, but a "Gemini 2.0 Thinking Mode" (analogous to "Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Mode") has been announced but does not have an Elo yet, will the Gemini 2 question resolve Yes or No?

bought Ṁ350 YES

For r1, would "r1-lite" count? Would "r1-preview" count?

For Gemini, would "Gemini-2.0-Exp" count, or does it have to be "Gemini-2.0" without the "-Exp" marker?

@MP Friendly ping! Would be lovely to get a clarification on the resolution criteria.

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