By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?
Plus
27
Ṁ11922026
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@NivlacM Model size at same performance coming down by a lot. There are currently models with 7-30B parameters that are in the ballpark of GPT-3.5 quality (which was likely ~175B params) https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
65% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
72% chance
Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024
67% chance
By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?
92% chance
Will OpenAI release a model better than GPT-4o without test time compute before EOY 2024?
74% chance
Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?
85% chance
Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?
39% chance
Will we have an open-source model better than GPT-4-Turbo before 2025?
95% chance
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
65% chance